Bibek Paudel’s weblog

I tried hard to resist commenting about the recent happenings in my home country but given the worldwide reactions and interest in the ongoing events, I think it is only proper for me to give my (and thus a section of my generation’s) opinion.

Nepal’s current situation skip it if you are already aware of

After more than a decade long civil war, Nepal’s economy is in shambles. It has been some months now that every day in Kathmandu, starting right from early in the morning, long queues of vehicles ply next to the filling stations. There is a shortage of petroleum fuel imported from India. Each day, Nepal Electricity Authority imposes an eight-hour long load-shedding. I am sure they impose many other hours of unannounced power cuts. This, in a country whose power potential is roughly 83,000 MW, which is equivalent to the combined installed hydroelectricity capacity of Canada, the United States and Mexico (reference), although less than 1 percent has been developed (reference). Inflation is on the rise, making the livelihood of ordinary citizens extremely difficult; exports are hitting their all-time low and so are stock prices. Major industries have been shut down and due to a long time of bad publicity, tourism is only slowly gaining its lost pace.

There’s a sense of fear among the citizens. Numerous criminal groups, mostly from across the open border with India are involved in politically motivated violence in the Southern plains called the Terai. In the hills, the yet-to-be-indoctrinated youth wing of the party leading the recently ended rebellion is allegedly involved in extortion, kidnapping and other hooliganist activities. There is a widespread belief that much of the unrest is sponsored by the King and/or some Hindu extrimist groups from India and Nepal supporting the King’s regime. A large number of unemployed youths, mostly from the hinterland leave every day for Gulf, South-East Asia and India in search of work. In similar numbers, educated youths fly to Western countries for studies. It would be no exaggeration when I say that most of my generation is either already out of the country or is waiting to be. Despite that, figures released recently show that nearly 50% of Nepal’s electorate is below the age of 35. The government machinary is more known for corruption than its work. There is a very big sense of frustration among the youths. Foreign debts have been piling up in large figures. Households displaced and disturbed by war in far flung hilly villages are yet to be resettled. Most of them have lost at least one member of the family during the war, or been affected in other ways.

The political situation has so far done no good in easing the above mentioned economic and social catastropes. Nepal’s social structure is still what can be called feudal. The 240 year old monarchy had been the most powerful political force in the country. Nepotism, irresponsibility, rat-race for power and resulting anarchy is all that could be accredited to the mainstream political parties many of whose top leaders are known to be either corrupt or having no definite vision of their own.

Elections and afterwards. Is there hope?

Surprisingly, yes. Despite living through the harshest and most terrorized times in history, Nepalese people showed great courage in turning up in unprecented numbers last week when the country went for polls to elect an assembly to rewrite the constitution. There were severe uncertainties regarding the polls, the runup was marked with several violent incidents, and it had already been postponed twice. A similar jubilation was on display when tens of thousands of people took it to the streets two years ago to protest against the King’s government formed thorough an informal coup. When I turn the pages of history, I understand that people were very hopeful even during the democracy movement of 1990 and 1980. The protests of 2006 marked an end to both the King’s coup and the civil war. It brought the Maoist to the government and made way for the elections of constituent assembly. Except that, this period was marked with the extremes of everything unwanted that could happen to Nepal.

To everybody’s (YES, everybody) surprise, the Maoists (CPM-M) snatched a landslide victory. Almost all of the old faces bit dust in the elections. Another important implication is that almost all of the pro-royalists lost badly. Nepal has a very large number of ethnic, cultural, geographical and language groups and only a handful of them were well represented so far. For the first time in Nepal, highest number of candidates representing marginal groups have made it to the assembly. The new constitution is certain to turn Nepal into a Federal Democratic Republic from the last remaining Hindu Kingdom. Inclusiveness is the buzzword in Nepal today. People and parties are coming up with their ideas about how to change things.

What it means to India ?

One topic always mentioned whenever any talk about Nepalese politics is done is India. Nepalese mainstream media potrays India as the bully big brother. In many ways, there is a vested political interest in many sections of Kathmandu’s elites in describing India as the bad guy. Every opposition party is Nepal has an agenda speaking of India’s unfair doings with Nepal. They simply love to hate India. Much of this is unfounded. India is Nepal’s closest neighbour and ally, sometimes more due to geography than due to choice. The two countries share close cultural, social and economic ties dating long back in history. No government in Nepal can do without having friendly relations with India. The Maoist supremo Prachanda has already made it clear that there is no need for the international community to grow apprehensive of them. He knows it quite well that taking a strong stance against India will take matters nowhere if not making them worse.

But there is another side to the story as well. Corrupt and ineffecient that Nepalese leaders so far were, India was given opportunities to mess up in the internal affairs of Nepal. Instead of relying on the people’s will and strength, leaders used to seek advice from the Indian and western diplomats each time a major decision had to be made. Rather than blaming the Indian authorities, I would like to stress that all this was made possible due to Nepal’s weak leadership. India has encroached the Nepalese border in as many as 51 places, illegally dammed the rivers very close the Nepalese border, causing inundation in large areas of Nepalese land. There is a huge trade-deficit between Nepal and India. Despite the bilateral preferential trade agreement between of 1996, India, without feeling the need to officially reach an agreement, restricts major Nepalese imports like vanaspati ghee, jute goods , polyester and acrylic yarn.

Nepalese take extreme pride in the fact that they were never ruled by any external/foreign powers. They want quite a few unfair agreements, scrapped or revised. The elections clearly showed their desire for change. In a press meet a couple of days back, the foreign policy expert of the Maoist, C.P. Gajurel made no bones in saying that they will reconsider all such treaties. Former Indiam ambassador to Nepal KV Rajan says, “It means that the special relationship between India and Nepal which dates back to British days and 1950 is in its terminal phase”. An interesting discussion can be read in Bhupendra Khanal’s blog (don’t forget to read the comments).

What lies in store?

Election is only a part of the democratic process, not the end. The Maoists in Nepal have a huge responsibility ahead after being entrusted by an overhelming majority of the people. Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai has already accepted this in a recent interview. There is pressure on the Maoist to shun violence and engage in a broad understanding with all the political forces in Nepal to reach a common agenda. Reuters writes, “abandoning much of the rhetoric of Marx and Mao, they talk of public-private partnerships, welcome foreign investment in many sectors of the economy, and shy away from nationalisation. Instead, education, healthcare, development and social justice are likely to top their agenda.” A sizeable part of their votebank this time was the middle class population in cities who more specifically in communist terms represent the bourgeoisie. Should the Maoists fail in delivering their promises, in no matter of time, this section will change sides the way they did this time.

One of the most difficult tasks at hand is managing the armed fighters and how that will be done remains to be seen. The King will be removed from all of his remaining privilages in about a month’s time. He is supported by Hindu extremists and the saffron parties of India, namely the BJP and the Shiv Sena. How the social structure in Nepal adapts to this change and if there will be any attempt on the King’s part to disrupt the peace process is not without doubt. Only time will tell If or not other political parties like NC and CPN-UML will cooperate with the Maoists whole-heartedly, how will the myopic mainstream media and conservative elites of Nepal comprising of feudal lords react to the change. The unrest in Southern plains has not yet receded completely and demands for greater autonomy by various ethnic groups need to be addressed.

The ground in Nepal has already shifted, unnoticed so far by many foreign-educated or Kathmandu dwelling youths and analysts of Nepal and abroad. On the other hand, people in the villages will look towards the fulfillment of their basic needs, demands of equality and being heard, and dream of a brighter, prosperous, secure future.

Its democracy, stupid !

Regardless of what foreign powers wanted to thrust upon our country, the people have decided for themselves. The people of Nepal have demonstrated the true power of democracy. Nowhere in the world has a radial communist party fighting a gureilla war returned to mainstream multiparty democracy and won the elections the way it has in Nepal. Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, observing the vote, told the BBC it was “embarrassing and frustrating” to see his government refuse to deal with the Maoists, and said he had no assurances that would change under this U.S. administration. It annoys me at how the United States is insulting the verdict of my nation by still not removing the CPN-M from its Terrorist Exclusion List. Democracy may be preached by the western superpowers, but it surely has been practiced well by a small landlocked nation in the lap of the Himalayas.

It is also a wake up call for the erstwhile major parties and their leaders to mend their ways. The media and Kathmandu centric think-tank of Nepal might have experienced a huge jolt beneath their feet. Its time to get real and get back into work. This is only an election for constituent assembly. In about two-year’s time, parliamentary elections will he held. Let’s hope everything turns out to be as expected by the people- especially by the underprivelaged in the villages and by the youths fleeing their country in search for opportunities. Lets also hope that relations with our neighbours starts getting fair, and based on the principles of mutual respect. Opportunities lay untapped in Nepal, wise use will benefit all the parties involved.